How many times have we heard that oriental rugs make great investments. Do they? How realistic is the prospect that you can  accumulate wealth by buying rugs? Not much better than the chances of winning the lottery, maybe worse. I don't mean to sound pessimistic. After all, you don't have to have your money increase tenfold overnight to have invested well. It should just increase at a reasonable rate over time to satisfy most folks. 
    Let's look at the realities. (I'll ignore the windfalls that are encountered now and then because they are rare and, while they can lead to terrific profits, they aren't likely to happen very often.)  The fact is, rug-buyers generally can expect to buy retail and sell wholesale. This means that when you want to sell your rug, you will only realize the current wholesale price for that type of rug (i.e. you will suffer a loss versus your retail purchase price.) And, you won't necessarily find a dealer or private buyer willing to pay even that. 
    Consider the record of the world's most expert appraisers, and  their results. The heads of the rug departments at the major auction houses place estimates on more than 1,000 rugs every year. They probably reject that many more rugs for their sales. Unlike most appraisers, they not only estimate value on a great many rugs, they also find out rather quickly if their appraisals were accurate  predictions of market value. Estimates typically encompass a range of about 25% to 30%. That is, they estimate that one piece will sell at $2,500 to $3,000, another at $10,000 to $14,000; and so forth. What do you think actually happens on sale day? Well, at a typical sale about 30% of the pieces don't sell. In addition, some pieces  sell for amounts below the estimated minimum, some for more than the estimated maximum. Overall, only about 50% of the pieces in any sale actually sell within the range of estimates. The most expert, most experienced appraisers in the world, are wrong by a significant margin about half the time. Can you or I do better consistently? I don't think so.
    Does all of this mean that there is no chance that any of us can profit from rug collecting. No. It just isn't the sort of thing you want to use for retirement planning. Collectible rugs do tend to increase in value over fairly long periods, but you also have to be aware that collector fashions change with time. Currently, the fashion among collectors is heavily toward tribal and rustic weavings, but this hasn't always been so and could change without warning. Unanticipated events can dramatically alter the supply of certain kinds of rugs. For example, the collapse of the USSR brought down the price of Caucasian rugs this way. The end of the embargo on trade between the United States and Iran will also depress the replacement value of rugs purchased during the embargo, when scarcity drove prices astronomically high, and, from the standpoint of merit, artificially high in many instances.
    All of that said, suppose you still want to make investment a major consideration in your purchases. You understand the risks, but would like to do it anyway. What should you be doing as a buyer? Well, you certainly want to anticipate where fashions are going if at all possible. From the standpoint of appreciation in value, the best bets will be on the very best pieces there are. These won't come cheaply, and likely will  be in short supply. Ordinary pieces, while less costly, are less likely to appreciate in value. Unless you've examined and handled lots of rugs and are confident in your aesthetic judgements, buying at auctions will be risky business for you. Try to find one or more knowledgeable dealers willing to work with you to obtain your objectives.
    What's the bottom line? It's simple. Buy rugs like works of art for your personal enjoyment. They will bring you pleasure in the same way other artworks do. Don't grab a rug if it doesn't grab you.